Tear your eyes away from China’s swinging stock market for a few
minutes this Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. Beijing time comes the world’s
second-biggest economy’s gross domestic product report for the three
months through June.
The economy may have expanded 6.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That compares to a 7 percent growth pace in the first quarter.
A more granular examination of the release will help gauge the health of the nation’s $10 trillion economy amid its slowest expansion in a generation.
* Rail, roads and bridges?
After tightening local government finances, policy makers relaxed rules again in recent months so provinces could keep borrowing and building. The central government also orchestrated a bond swap program so their local counterparts could keep constructing high-speed rail and freeways to offset slumping private sector spending.
As part of the fixed-asset investment report, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) will show whether the fiscal firepower is hitting the mark. Growth was 18.1 percent in the first five months, down from 25 percent a year earlier.
* Has the property sector really recovered?
The boom is back in Shenzhen and prices are rising again in Shanghai. Real estate development investment, indicating the confidence developers have in future sales, signals whether the sector will support the recovery or continue to weigh on growth.
That figure for the first six months will be released as part of a statement of fixed-asset investment. It has slowed to 5.1 percent in the past five months, about half of the rate last year, and a quarter of 2013’s pace.
* What did the stock frenzy do to the economy?
China’s stocks rallied Thursday and Friday after the government’s all-guns blazing response to a rout that erased more than $3 trillion since a mid June peak. For most of the second quarter though, the boom was on. Growth of financial intermediation -- released in a separate announcement posted to the statistics bureau website a day after the headline figure -- will shed light on how brokers, banks and exchanges contributed to economic output. The number surged 15.9 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the standout among the nine industry groups outlined by the statistics bureau.
* How about jobs?
While Premier Li Keqiang has reiterated that employment, rather than GDP, moves policy decisions, the paucity of reliable data makes it tough to gauge the health of the world’s biggest labor market. At the GDP press briefing following the 10:00 a.m. release, the statistics authority may mention some numbers that can help flesh out the jobs picture.
The spokesman will probably mention new jobs added in the first six months (remember the government’s target is 10 million new jobs this year). The survey-based unemployment rate for June may also be mentioned. The rate was about 5.1 percent in May, stable from last year even as the economy slowed.
* Does nominal GDP signal a steeper slowdown?
While growth somewhere around 7 percent seems pretty stable, data that’s unadjusted for inflation (and deflation) offers a more volatile picture. First-quarter nominal growth was 5.8 percent, down from 7.9 percent in the same period last year and 18 percent in the first three months of 2011.
The GDP deflator, an economy-wide inflation measure, fell from over 8 percent in 2011 into negative territory this year as commodity prices declined and subdued domestic demand kept a lid on consumer inflation. Remember, the central bank’s monetary easing really kicked off after the first quarter deflater turned negative, so watch this space closely.
The economy may have expanded 6.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That compares to a 7 percent growth pace in the first quarter.
A more granular examination of the release will help gauge the health of the nation’s $10 trillion economy amid its slowest expansion in a generation.
* Rail, roads and bridges?
After tightening local government finances, policy makers relaxed rules again in recent months so provinces could keep borrowing and building. The central government also orchestrated a bond swap program so their local counterparts could keep constructing high-speed rail and freeways to offset slumping private sector spending.
As part of the fixed-asset investment report, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) will show whether the fiscal firepower is hitting the mark. Growth was 18.1 percent in the first five months, down from 25 percent a year earlier.
* Has the property sector really recovered?
The boom is back in Shenzhen and prices are rising again in Shanghai. Real estate development investment, indicating the confidence developers have in future sales, signals whether the sector will support the recovery or continue to weigh on growth.
That figure for the first six months will be released as part of a statement of fixed-asset investment. It has slowed to 5.1 percent in the past five months, about half of the rate last year, and a quarter of 2013’s pace.
* What did the stock frenzy do to the economy?
China’s stocks rallied Thursday and Friday after the government’s all-guns blazing response to a rout that erased more than $3 trillion since a mid June peak. For most of the second quarter though, the boom was on. Growth of financial intermediation -- released in a separate announcement posted to the statistics bureau website a day after the headline figure -- will shed light on how brokers, banks and exchanges contributed to economic output. The number surged 15.9 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the standout among the nine industry groups outlined by the statistics bureau.
* How about jobs?
While Premier Li Keqiang has reiterated that employment, rather than GDP, moves policy decisions, the paucity of reliable data makes it tough to gauge the health of the world’s biggest labor market. At the GDP press briefing following the 10:00 a.m. release, the statistics authority may mention some numbers that can help flesh out the jobs picture.
The spokesman will probably mention new jobs added in the first six months (remember the government’s target is 10 million new jobs this year). The survey-based unemployment rate for June may also be mentioned. The rate was about 5.1 percent in May, stable from last year even as the economy slowed.
* Does nominal GDP signal a steeper slowdown?
While growth somewhere around 7 percent seems pretty stable, data that’s unadjusted for inflation (and deflation) offers a more volatile picture. First-quarter nominal growth was 5.8 percent, down from 7.9 percent in the same period last year and 18 percent in the first three months of 2011.
The GDP deflator, an economy-wide inflation measure, fell from over 8 percent in 2011 into negative territory this year as commodity prices declined and subdued domestic demand kept a lid on consumer inflation. Remember, the central bank’s monetary easing really kicked off after the first quarter deflater turned negative, so watch this space closely.
